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806
FXUS66 KHNX 012318
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
418 PM PDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Minor to Moderate Heat Risk is expected across the lower
elevations of the region today with less Heat Risk for the
remainder of the week.

2. A disturbance will allow for the development of strong winds
over the mountains and across the Eastern Mojave Slopes of the
Kern County Mountains Today and Monday.

3. Mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and again
on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A cool-down is now in play across the region as a cold front
introduces maritime air today. With the marine layer at Fort Ord
reaching almost 2000 feet, will expect some spill-over into the
Central California. 24 hour temperature change is already
showing the surge in cooler air as values drop by as much as 6
degrees from Saturday morning. So far, the cooler air has
reached areas from Fresno County, northward, with cooling
expected on Monday. The cold front will also influence winds
over the area as breezy conditions are expected later today
through early Monday morning. In the meanwhile, the southerly
moisture surge will continue today as mountain convection will
once again occur across the Sierra Nevada. Once the cold front
moves through, dry air and a warming trend will begin early this
week. Afternoon max temperatures will struggle to reach 100
degrees across the San Joaquin Valley until the weekend.

Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees across
the San Joaquin Valley is still showing percentages of 15% to
60% this Sunday. The higher percentages sit over the West-Side
around Huron and Lemoore, as well as, near Bakersfield.
Afterward, PoE of reaching 95 degrees does not show widespread
50% until Friday. Therefore, the warming trend will be slow as
ensemble do not hint toward reaching 100 degrees until next
Saturday. A weak disturbance later in the week will slow the
warming progression as the Central Valley enjoys below triple
digit heat until next weekend.

The cold front will increase winds this Sunday allowing westerly
wind to increase during frontal passage. In the meanwhile,
ensemble flow aloft continues to show the southerly winds
reaching Central California as convection is expected across the
mountain range. By Monday, the westerly flow will begin the
dominate the region as only lingering convection will be
observed. Tuesday will be a transition to minimal change in
temperatures and dry conditions over the region. Probability of
Thunder today sits at near 20% and diminishes to near 5% over
the coming days. During the same time period, winds reaching 35
mph also diminish from 50% to 70% today to near 20% by Mid-week.
Except for an increase in winds on Thursday, winds will
generally be light during the period.


&&


.AVIATION...
00Z Update:

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central
California Interior. A slight chance (15%) of afternoon
convection will exist across the Sierra Nevada until 03Z Mon
with thunderstorms possible (15-20% chance) again after 19Z
Monday.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...Molina
aviation....JPK/BSO

weather.gov/hanford